Category: Trading Ideas

The Market is Simply NOT Expecting This to Happen

To succeed in investing you essentially have to beat the majority of other investors. This will not be achieved by thinking like everyone else. You will have to think and act differently to everyone else. How do most people think when it comes to trading, or at least what do

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This WILL Happen!

All pegs break! Capital flows have shifted. They are heading from the periphery back to the core. It’s a rotten core but it’s the only core we have. That core for the time being is the greenback. It is happening in fits and starts but across almost every currency cross

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When Volatility and Debt Collide

A question to begin today’s discussion… Which is riskier: corporate or public debt? If I lend $1,000 to my neighbour and take his bicycle worth $1,000 as collateral, which is what pawn brokers do, I have a quantifiable risk. I also have collateral which I can trust. I can see, feel

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A Stealth Bull Market Developing in Gold

There is a bull market developing in gold and few are aware of it. Given the seemingly endless urge to “stimulate” economies by central banks through quantitative easing (money printing), such as the ECB, BOE, & BOJ, it isn’t difficult to imagine that gold’s rally in multi-currency terms is still

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The US Dollar Bull Market is Alive and Well

If you think that the “bullish USD trade” is too overbought – well, you might have to rethink or at least try not to think too much. My feeling is that the “big” move in the USD we have witnessed over the last 6 months is only just the start

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2014 in the Rear-View Mirror

Each year we have made a habit of taking a look back at what we’ve prognosticated “may” occur during the year and holding the mirror up. Given that we’re at year end 2014, it’s that time again! Sometimes this is a painful exercise, as it’s a clear reminder of how

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The World’s Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger

Ten days ago China cut interest rates in an effort to free up credit and stimulate the economy. This is unlikely to have much of a positive effect on economic growth in China. Rather it is likely to compound the big problem that the Chinese currently face: exports becoming increasingly uncompetitive.

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What a Disaster This Investment Has Been

When I was younger, 16 I think, I wanted to be George Soros. Horror, I know given that there are probably parts of the world I’d be dismembered in the streets for uttering such a comment. Grumpy old bastard with abhorrent political ideas. Yes, all true but at the time

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