Year: 2022

OWTW
CapEx Team

When dominoes begin to fall – OWTW

  COLD HOT TURKEY Earlier this year, in the Insider Newsletter we highlighted a corner of the market that was left for dead by investors. Namely, Turkish stocks. As we said at the time, after a decade-long bear market, the Turkish stock market declined some 60% — even more dramatic when you consider the

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OWTW
CapEx Team

Pulse Check on Crypto – OWTW

The EU pointy shoes are throwing lavish banquets in the metaverse (yes, it’s just as bizarre as it sounds). So let’s use the opportunity to do a pulse check on the crypto market, shall we? It was a year ago, in a November 2021 issue of Insider Newsletter, when we called

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OWTW
CapEx Team

VC Poster Child: Coming Unglued – OWTW

Back in 2019, Chris wrote a lengthy article warning about the house of cards that is Masayoshi San’s Softbank. You can read Chris’ entire piece here, but here’s an excerpt: The entire “growth” story, which is to say companies that can continuously grow market share (preferably at a loss) looks to

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Truly Breathtaking – OWTW

Oh, boy! Crypto is (once again) moving with the volatility of the British pound. By now, you have probably heard of the wipeout of FTX and their founder Sam Bankman-Fried. In case the guy’s name wasn’t enough reason to give you pause (bankman fried?), Fortune tried to warn you back

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OWTW
CapEx Team

Predictable – OWTW

Long-term readers are by now familiar with our investing philosophy and “market bias.” We are long-term investors first and foremost. We shun what’s expensive and gravitate towards what’s cheap. In recent years, that meant backing up the truck on everything energy, particularly oil and gas and coal, and resisting the seductive siren

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OWTW
CapEx Team

“Gilty” as Charged – OWTW

A lifetime ago now — actually, it was only back in January of this year — the 30-year Gilts traded at 80bps. A few weeks ago that hit 5% and now trades at 4%. And if you’re a visual learner, here’s the bond chart for you: As we commented in

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OWTW
CapEx Team

Getting Spanked – OWTW

  WHAT IF… It’s been a while since we touched on the bond market here, but our buddy Kuppy just penned a thought-provoking piece on the topic. A short teaser: Imagine what would happen if 30-year treasuries collapsed and yielded 10%, offering a real yield of almost 2%, or potentially enough to compensate

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OWTW
CapEx Team

The Mania Rages On – OWTW

If the last couple of years we had a retail mania on the upside, we now appear to have a mania on the downside. Here’s Bloomberg on the state of the markets these days: It’s quite a change in tactics for retail traders. Enticed by the sharp equity rally and

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