Category: Trading Ideas

Stability in Renminbi Offers an XXL Profit Opportunity

As mentioned in my writing on the Singapore dollar, the most dangerous thing in finance is the “thing” that never moves. This stability creates an illusion of control around which many positions are built, the greater the perceived stability the greater the positions, and the more other assumptions and forecasts

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Why the Singapore Dollar is Staring Into the Abyss

Singapore is regarded as the “safe haven” or Switzerland of Asia. While on the surface Singapore is the economy to which most others can only aspire to one day become, beneath the scenes is a very fragile economy highly dependent on the cost of capital staying low or at least

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Round 2 for the Japanese Yen

Today’s article is compliments of our friend Mark Schumacher at ThinkGrowth. Mark has been a reader and subsequently become a regular bouncing board for us with respect to publicly traded equities, market sentiment and the like. I always value his thoughts and it is a rare occasion that we disagree.

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All Eyes Should Be on Volatility

We will be travelling to Aspen for our Meet Up this week. In the meantime, below is a thought provoking comment on market volatility from our friend Mark Schumacher from ThinkGrowth, a boutique investment advisory firm. Hope you enjoy it! ———— The stock market is currently in correction mode. The Dow Jones

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The World’s Most Crowded Trade

With over $900 billion invested into bond funds by mom-and-pop investors since the global financial crisis, the great law of unintended consequence is gearing up to rear its ugly head. Once again, money will be taken from those least able to afford it. Take a look at the graph below,

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Value in France – Who Would have Thought?

Nowadays France is better known as the country which has managed to take incomprehensible, anti-growth, anti-sanity, bureaucratic policies, layer them on top of existing, mind-numbing socialist stupidity and have their citizens think it all as ordinary as chocolate cake. It’s enough to induce a guy to reach for Xanax, if

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The Importance of Buying Lots of Time

Early in 2012 I noted how cheap Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) appeared. Certainly the stock looked cheap, though when trading options I need more than just a cheap stock. Importantly, in this instance the availability of ultra-long term December 2016 expiration options (trading on the Amsterdam exchange) also seemed cheap,

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Is Crude Setting Up for Something Big?

Our friend and colleague Harris Kupperman recently wrote an article about Kashagan and the massive delays being enjoyed by this particular project. The problem is that Kashagan is a poster child for the sector as a whole. This isn’t an anomaly. Let me copy a few key paragraphs from his

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