bank assets, currency, central bank
Currency
CapEx Team

Can’t Access It? Don’t Own It

In a stunning move, the Sleepy Joe administration woke up, stumbled out of bed, and in what is unfortunately now characteristic they promptly froze the central bank’s assets of one of the world’s foremost military and nuclear-armed powers. This is how it was described in the WSJ article: Many economists have long equated this money to savings in a piggy bank, which in turn correspond to investments made abroad in the real economy. Recent events highlight the error in this

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OWTW
CapEx Team

Brace for a food crisis – OWTW

  MEET HUGO The 1921-1923 hyperinflation in Germany and Austria was blamed on the 1918 Spanish Flu. The 202X hyperinflation will be blamed on Covid-19. History is repeating itself. For some inspiration, it’s worth revisiting one Hugo Stinnes. Hugo was a cunning bugger who became Germany’s richest man during the 1920s. Now, how is this relevant today? Well, the US has announced another stimulus package in the amount of $1.9 trillion. Put another way, this is ONE THOUSAND billion dollars! This comes

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Banking
CapEx Team

ONLY ONCE

Can you do this: removing Russia’s central bank and a number of other commercial banks from the SWIFT payment messaging system. That’s what just happened. This is the weaponisation of money on this scale we’ve never seen before. Why do I say this? Because the second-order effects are that the whole world sees this. Pray tell, what China thinks of this now? I’ll tell you what. They will make it a priority to NOT need the US dollar going forward.

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russia, ukraine
Current Affairs/Politics
CapEx Team

WHAT ISN’T BEING TALKED ABOUT

This edition is probably the beastiest we’ve produced. Late nights, phone calls, research into the wee hours, you name it. It is hard not to feel overwhelmed. We feel fortunate we’ve been watching much of this for decades now, so the ability to parse information and understand it within context is hopefully better than if we’d only picked up the sport recently. Finding the time to get even a fraction of it all down here for you is challenging, and

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Insider
CapEx Team

LONG DEATH

While correlation doesn’t always equal causation… It’s morbid AF to have a “long death” portfolio, but if people are dying, people are dying. And we’d wish for them and their loved ones to have as dignified an experience as one can get in such shitty conditions. Funeral homes — a picture is worth a thousand words. From Service Corporation International’s (a funeral business) 10K. Notice the acceleration in stock returns starting in 2021 (vax rollout began). Both Service Corporation and

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Current Affairs/Politics
CapEx Team

RUSSIA: SANCTION ITS EXPORTS AT YOUR PERIL

By now you might be thinking we are “pro-Russia”. Nothing of the sort. In essence, what we are trying to do is point out how Russia is way more important to the world economy than it was some 20 years ago. To embargo or limit Russia’s exports will only lead to an inflationary superstorm. Some 20 years ago Europe (and the “West”) had the North Sea, which produced as much as Russia and the US. Now it is a shadow

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OWTW
CapEx Team

Russia: Careful what you wish for – OWTW

This week’s issue will be a bit different than usual. We’re sharing with you an excerpt from our latest Insider Weekly that looks under the hood (bonnet, for our British readers) of the economic measures against Russia. The pundits are rushing to tell us that the way to stop Russia’s aggression is by hitting the Russkies where it hurts (i.e. their oil and gas). Our view is that any sort of blockade of Russia’s exports will only lead to an inflationary super

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fertilizer inflation, food inflation
inflation
CapEx Team

FERTILIZER CRISIS ABOUT TO BECOME A FOOD CRISIS

Don’t underestimate this fertilizer/agriculture fiasco. It is going to be far more severe and prolonged than what the vast majority has led themselves to believe. As Europe’s farmers prepare to spread fertilizers on fields after winter, sky-high nutrient prices are leaving them little choice but to use less and try to pass on the cost down the food chain. For growers of staples like corn and wheat, it’s the first time they’ve really been exposed to a fertilizer crisis fueled

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