I received a query from a subscriber as per below:
After the war in Ukraine subsides, we’ll likely see a huge injection of capital to rebuild the bombed cities. Is there a micro play here on a few larger Ukrainian construction / raw materials / home builders that are most probable to benefit from the larger share of this cash injection?
@lucas maybe this is worth discussing with Chris and Brad now rather than waiting for the next monthly? If the war ends and capital starts flowing, we lose out on the asymmetry.
The above question is an assumption that Ukraine wins?
This makes sense from the perspective of having viewed the model for US-led (and “allies”) wars. Go in, bomb the pha-kout of everything, plant a flag, topple a statue, and declare victory. Once this has been achieved, then let the deep state (yes, you Halliburton) go and “rebuild,” complete with a puppet government. Remember Cheney’s Halliburton and their $39.5bn windfall?
Putin doesn’t appear to be doing that. And why would he? Obliterating the place, only to have to pay the bill to rebuild it all again works only if you’re using the state as a tool to enrich the deep state.
The US has elections looming in November, all the while gas prices are shooting the lights out, the Wuflu lockdowns impacted folks and despite stimmy checks there’s a lot of pain now being felt. Actions after all have consequences. And this little 2-year party that the globalists just threw is now rapidly entering a hangover phase. For these reasons, I don’t think that there will be the appetite for a direct war. The Biden administration risks losing ground in November elections anyway. A foreign war in a country that few Americans knew existed until a couple months ago isn’t going to fly. NATO, as mentioned, is an empty shell, so the US must adapt to this reality. So they’ll adopt the proxy war. They’ll fund insurgencies and specifically throw a shit ton of military hardware into the border countries of Ukraine. Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland.
The real risk here is that this drags in China and hence North Korea as well as the Balkans. As mentioned last week, the Serbia-Kosovo antagonism and rivalry with respect to Russia is possibly going to flare up. Then, of course, in the chaos that takes place, we can expect other countries to dive into the power vacuums left. Iran and Israel?
Where to head to (if one has the means)? Good question, but South America looks appealing.
Europe is really just in a real pickle, and it looks like dodging the trouble there is going to be increasingly difficult.