Long-time readers will be familiar with some of the contrarian indicators we discussed here over the years. Things like magazine covers and ETF listings (and also de-listings) that — more often than not — do a fantastic job capturing the market zeitgeist. Just as importantly, they also tend to be eerily accurate when it comes to signaling market/sector tops (or bottoms).
With all that in mind, we wonder if CEOs signing women’s boobs also warrants a spot on our contrarian indicators list?
Don’t get us wrong — we’re not questioning Jensen Huang’s expertise. The man clearly knows silicone. But when CEOs are elevated to “rock stars” in the mainstream, it’s probably safe to say we’re closer to market tops than bottoms.
If you need an example of just how quickly a turnaround can happen, just look at Elon Musk.
For a long time, Musk (and by extension, Tesla) was very much like Huang and Nvidia today. Sure, he wasn’t signing boobs, but he made the cover of TIME magazine, hosted Saturday Night Live, and probably a whole bunch of other things we fail to recall right now.
In other words, he could do no wrong. And in the eyes of the public (and investors), neither could Tesla. At some point, the stock sat on an eye-bleeding P/E of 380x and sported the highest market cap for any automaker in history.
We tried betting against it and failed as Tesla kept soaring higher and higher (they don’t say being early is the same as being wrong for no reason).
Now, fast forward a few years, and investors have turned their backs on Musk and Tesla and moved on to the next shiny object (AI and Nvidia?). In fact, Tesla is now one of the worst performing stocks on the market this year.
We’re not saying the Nvidia follows the exact same playbook. But history, as they say, often rhymes.
As an aside, you don’t see oil and gas or coal CEOs giving boob autographs. Which brings us to…
AI: WHERE WILL THE ENERGY COME FROM?
Chris recently spoke at George Gammon’s Rebel Capitalist event. One of the topics he touched on in his presentation was the AI craze boom and how to capitalize on it. Here’s a piece from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that Chris shared in his presentation:
Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. Data centres are significant drivers of growth in electricity demand in many regions. After globally consuming an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022, data centres’ total electricity consumption could reach more than 1 000 TWh in 2026. This demand is roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan. Updated regulations and technological improvements, including on efficiency, will be crucial to moderate the surge in energy consumption from data centres.
Which begs the question — where will all that extra electricity to power AI data centres come from? Even if the IEA is only half right, a bucket load more electricity will be required.
Data centres require a consistent supply of electricity, so forget solar and wind. Nuclear power plants run at full capacity most of the time. Plus, it takes 10 years or so to build a nuclear power plant. So that only leaves natural gas and coal as viable options.
Curiously, ESG champions like Blackrock’s Larry Fink seem to have come to the same conclusion.
With all that in mind, perhaps the biggest winners of the AI revolution will end up being the companies supplying the commodities to produce all the extra electricity required to power AI data centres. We think this view offers better asymmetry than Nvidia right now.
ALL THINGS TRANSITORY…
Feels like a lifetime ago, when — back in February 2020 — we started warning that lockdowns will bring about inflation and shortages. Fast forward to today, and this pesky stuff is now part of our daily lives. We recently set up a dedicated inflation channel in our Insider private forum, where members can share their own experiences with all things “transitory”.
Insider member Henry shared this piece from Martin Armstrong with some thoughts on the differences between inflation, deflation, and stagflation. Here’s an excerpt (emphasis ours):
During periods of stagflation, the prices of goods and services increase while buying power decreases. Consumers end up spending more on less. As we are seeing now, for example, retail sales on items such as clothing have declined, but people are spending more on gas and groceries. People feel as if they are earning less despite earning more because their buying power has been drastically reduced. Companies will suffer as consumers spend less, as we are seeing at restaurants, as one example, and this will lead to reductions in the workforce.
EVERY VACUUM GETS FILLED
One of our mantras here at Capitalist Exploits HQ has been that power abhors vacuum, and as such, every power vacuum gets filled.
We previously discussed in the Insider Newsletter (on multiple occasions, actually) the growing geopolitical weakness of the US and the power vacuum this creates in different regions around the world — the vacuum that’s now getting quickly filled by countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and, of course and unsurprisingly, China and Russia.
Here’s a curious example that recently caught our attention.
Unexpectedly, China has forgiven all of Zimbabwe’s debts. In case you’re wondering how much is “all,” estimates suggest the total amount could be as high as $10 billion.
It is worth pointing out that Zimbabwe is under sanctions, and as such are in the naughty books of the parasites like the IMF and the World Bank.
China has eagerly filled this niche by lending and now forgiving debts. Of course, it would be naive to think it’s because the Chinese are nice and charitable.
Behind the scenes, they will have cut some deals — a 20-cents-on-the-dollar type of deal. In other words, something like this, “You owe us $10 billion, and can’t pay? What a shame. How about we forgive it, have a beer and oh… well, maybe let us, you know, ”look after” that port of yours over there. Yes, we know it’s worth something north of $100 billion. Don’t worry, we’ll take good care of it. Promise!”
For some perspective, take a look at the map showing all of China’s investments and forgiven debts in Africa — the amount of red would make even the most hardened CCP comrades blush.
The point is that China is actively becoming the continent’s main trade and political partner. This is not a new phenomenon. Conquest by trade was how the Inca became dominant centuries ago.
Considering that Africa is the only continent with a huge potential for development, these investments will likely pay off manifold in the future. For the Chinese, that is.
Whether or not it is helpful to Africa remains to be seen. Our hunch is they’ll become subjugated — this time by China rather than the IMF, World Bank, and Western globalists. We’ll wait to find out what it looks like before passing judgment.
IF I HAD A HUNDRED TRILLION (ZIMBABWE) DOLLARS…
The currency may be kaput but that bill sure looks great on a shirt!
You can check out all our merch here.
Have a great weekend!
