NEW PODCAST WITH CHRIS MACINTOSH

Chris recently sat down with Ladislas Maurice from the Wandering Investor to discuss the rapidly-changing macro landscape and what that means for folks allocating their capital.

Here’s just a smattering of the topics they covered:

• Why you absolutely should let the pointy shoes on TV guide your investment decisions. Yes, you’ve read that right. The same sectors (and asset classes), you are being told are bad for you, destroying the planet, etc. are the ones where capital is going to flow (and is, in fact, flowing right now). We’ll touch on one of those sectors later in this issue.
• “War comes as a consequence of debt and debt comes as a consequence of wars” — what does that mean through the lens of history and how it’s relevant today
• How to invest in the age of conflict
• Always be diversified, except… There are specific points in history where carrying all your proverbial eggs in one basket and being geographically concentrated makes a lot of sense (and can be extremely profitable).
• The reports of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated: a controversial take on why the idea of the US dollar crashing (or even flat out collapsing) is not only naive but also factually wrong
• Why the push for CBDCs (and why now) and what it means for investors as well as the average man (or woman) on the street

…and much more.

You can listen to the entire conversation between Chris and Ladislas Maurice from the Wandering Investor here.

  THE END GAME

While on the topic of podcasts, we have another one for you today. This one not featuring Chris, but two of his favourite people — Ivor Cummins and Laura Aboli (if you haven’t seen Laura’s viral talk yet, you can watch it here).

The conversation was recorded at the sidelines of our event held recently in Dubai and the launch of The Mavericks Project. If you understand the truth in what Laura breaks down in her conversation with Ivor and the transhumanist agenda, then you also know that the time to do something about it is yesterday.

  ALL THINGS TRANSITORY…

Feels like a lifetime ago, when — back in February 2020 — we started warning that lockdowns will bring about inflation and shortages. Fast forward to today, and this pesky stuff is now part of our daily lives. We recently set up a dedicated inflation channel in our Insider private forum, where members can share their own experiences with all things “transitory”.

For the past couple of years, housing has been one of the fastest rising components of inflation. But if anecdotal evidence from our Insider members is anything to go by, we might see a major reversal in housing prices.

Here’s an account from member Mike from New Zealand:

Spent the Easter weekend with the family at our Holiday House on Lake Taupo in NZ, what struck me was the number of for sale signs out side properties, its a tiny little village hidden away, houses there tend to be owned for generations, quite rare to see more than a couple of houses for sale at any time, thing are starting to get tough.

Member Anissa chimed in with similar observations:

Same observations up here as I travelled along the Tutukaka coast : signs everywhere. I see more and more pop up each week. Definitely big changes are coming…

Another member, Puf2003champ, (wisely) added:

I am of the opinion that one of the major leading indicators of the coming crash in North America will be for sale signs on the second home markets.

  URANIUM: A BLAST FROM THE PAST

It’s been a while since we last talked about uranium in these missives, but that doesn’t mean we’re no longer bullish. Quite the contrary — we think uranium (and uranium related assets) still have ways to go.

To help you better understand where we are in the cycle, here’s a little historical analog that we recently shared in the Insider Newsletter.

Let’s say you bought Cameco back in 2000 at the height of the dot-com bubble (24 March 2000, to be precise). Somehow you had a brilliant insight that uranium would be a big winner over the coming months/years. Fast forward four years and Cameco was up some 330%. You may have been thinking of getting out and not pushing your luck (not too dissimilar to how many folks are currently feeling about the magnificent run in uranium miners over the last few years).

Now, let’s look at Cameco’s performance from March 2004 to March 2007 (below). It ended up going up another 300%. In other words, just when you got the jitters of being up too much in the trade, you were only half way through the cycle.

We suspect that we are closer to half way through the current bull market in uranium rather than closer to the end of the cycle.

We sincerely believe that the greatest risk to most (if not all) of these thematic trades we are invested in right now (uranium, offshore oil services, gold, tankers, etc.) is getting out too early. From 2016 to 2022 (yes, six years) we did the hard yards, and now we are seeing the fruits for our toil. Let the good times roll!

Incidentally, one other thing to note in the first Cameco chart above — come March 2003, the S&P 500 was down some 45% whereas Cameco was up 150%.

And how did Cameco perform in the lead up to March 2000? From 1995 to 2000 it was down some 44%. From March 1996 to 2000 it was down some 76%. Either way, by 2000 it was regarded as “toxic waste” by investors (as with all uranium miners), and the rest is an enlightening history.

Moral of the story? There’s a handful, actually:

• Even in the face of a nasty bear market you can make good money by buying “toxic waste.”
• The more ferocious the bear market the longer the duration and magnitude of the bull market that follows.
• Don’t be too quick to take profits.

But of course, it is always so easy being a hindsight genius!

 LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL

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Have a great week!