Social Unrest: Coming to a City Near You – OWTW

🎙️  NEW PODCAST WITH CHRIS

Last week, Chris was on George Gammon’s Rebel Capitalist Show to discuss the current macroeconomic environment and how to stay ahead of the curve as an investor.

As always, they covered a lot of ground. But to give you a bit of an appetizer, Chris explained:

  • What’s happening with the Russian stocks in the Insider portfolio (we would argue this part alone is well worth the proverbial price of admission for any investor),
  • How the semiconductor industry in Taiwan is affecting farmers in Brazil… and likely the food on your dinner plate,
  • The bifurcation of the world taking place right now and where to invest (as well as where NOT to invest),
  • Why the recent London Metal Exchange fiasco is much more critical than 99% of people think (if they’re familiar with it at all),
  • And a whole lot more.

Listen to the entire conversation here.

🛢️  OIL: NOT BULLISH ENOUGH?

It’s no secret we’ve been bullish on oil for years now. But this gem from US Congresswoman Diana DeGette, the chair the Energy and Commerce Oversight panel, makes us think we’re not bullish enough:

The same people who have been for the past few years demonizing oil and gas are now scratching their heads and wondering why people are paying so much for gas “being gouged at the pump.”

You really can’t make this up.

🤷  ALL THINGS TRANSITORY…

Feels like a lifetime ago, when — back in February 2020 — we started warning that lockdowns will bring about inflation and shortages. Fast forward to today, and this pesky stuff is now part of our daily lives. We recently set up a dedicated inflation channel in our Insider private forum, where members can share their own experiences with all things “transitory”.

In case you thought gas was cheaper than water in the Middle East, member Khaled has been tracking gas prices in Dubai for the past 18 months:

  • September 2020: 1.91 AED per litre
  • October 2020: 2.06 AED per litre
  • February 2021: 1.91 AED per litre
  • March 2021: 2.15 AED per litre
  • April 2021: 2.22 AED per litre
  • October 2021: 2.60 AED per litre
  • November 2021: 2.81 AED per litre
  • February 2022: 2.94 AED per litre
  • March 2022: 3.19 AED per litre
  • April 2022: 3.75 AED per litre

Ouch! That’s a 68% increase over the past year. Another member, Clint, commented:

Wow. I’m pretty sure it’d be civil war and riots in the US if gas was $16-17 a gallon. It’d cost me $400 to fill the tank. Unbelievable. People wouldn’t go to work, they’d go burn down a McDonalds instead again.

Clint is probably right (and you’ll see why in a second).

💥  SOCIAL UNREST: COMING TO A CITY NEAR YOU

While on the topic of inflation and civil unrest…

Peru has declared a one-month state of emergency to allow the armed forces to supervise its highways, as the government of President Pedro Castillo tries to stem nationwide protests over rising fuel and food prices.

Hundreds of truckers and farm workers have been blocking roads across the country for more than a week in anger over rising costs, which have spiked since Russia invaded Ukraine.

And it’s not just Peru…

Sri Lanka, an island nation of 22 million, is facing an economic and political crisis, with protesters taking to the streets in defiance of curfews and government ministers stepping down en masse.

Driving the discontent is the worst economic downturn since the South Asian country gained independence in 1948, with crippling inflation sending the cost of basic goods skyrocketing.

Anger, which has been simmering for weeks, boiled over last Thursday, turning protests violent — and throwing the government into disorder.

If you’re a long-time reader, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. As Chris pointed out in Insider Weekly recently:

When food prices rise to a point where they exceed 30% of disposable income, civil unrest and revolution become highly probable. Maybe not 2022, but at some point in the next few years we’re almost guaranteed a revolution, maybe more than one in countries which you’d never have thought such a thing possible.

You might think it’s inconceivable for something like this to happen in the West. Ever. But remember the 30% threshold mentioned earlier?

The US is at 20% right now. This is when the probability of wars and conflict increase dramatically.

🤣  WEEK’S HUMOUR

We’re a week late with our April fools contribution but this was too funny not to share, especially given what’s been happening in the global energy arena:

Have a great weekend!

– The Team at Capitalist Exploits

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