Thank God For “Mail”

Mail thinks this is junk.

Mail is smart.

I propose we put “mail” onto Goldman, who it’s nice to see are squirming over the seemingly unimaginable fraud which they actively assisted in perpetrating robbing the 1MDB Malaysian sovereign wealth fund of some $5 billion.

If you think Way Gilstrap (above) is the height of isht, then clearly you’ve not met Goldman.

Dead Fish Floating to the Surface

A few weeks back my buddy Kuppy wrote about hedge fund armageddon. And it always takes a while before you see the dead fish rise to the surface after a bomb has gone off. And now we see another hedgie just closed doors.

Oh, the Irony

No comment!

The Law of Diminishing Returns

The law of diminishing returns states that if one factor of production (number of workers, for example) increases while other factors (machines and workspace, for example) are held constant, the output per unit of the variable factor will eventually diminish.

Following the last few weeks of PBOC liquidity injections, we appear to be… how do we say it… pushing on a string.

I’m not entirely sure what this means for Trump and his trade war negotiations with Xi. But I’m acutely aware that the popular narrative is that we’re in the midst of a new Shanghai accord, which would mean the greenback gets taken out back and beaten with a broom handle.

That’s the popular viewpoint right now, but I’m not so sure.

We know China is wayyy overdue a loan loss cycle but hey, we’re talking about a manipulated state run economy so you’re forgiven for cocking up timing on this bad boy.

We also read that China just borrowed a whopping 5% of GDP in January alone. Annualised that’s 60% of GDP. “Unpossible”, you’d say. Welllll, it’s possible but not without serious consequences.

Sometimes when we think about a trade the way to go about it is to take the opposite view and then see how that feels.

So for today, let’s play dare. I dare you to go long Chinese paper vs US paper and hold that trade for the next couple of years.

Forgive me for saying so but it feels like China right now is like that addicted junkie pawning his wife’s jewellery to feed a habit dusting off his nose to talk to the cameras and keep up appearances.

There is No Clown Show Like a Political Clown Show

I’ll have an entire article for you on this later this week for you, but we’re seeing is society tearing itself apart.

Exhibit 1

In other news, I’m presenting at a virtual conference at the end of the month. The topic is Asia and it’s organised by a friend. You can register for it here.



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