Month: December 2014

2014 in the Rear-View Mirror

Each year we have made a habit of taking a look back at what we’ve prognosticated “may” occur during the year and holding the mirror up. Given that we’re at year end 2014, it’s that time again! Sometimes this is a painful exercise, as it’s a clear reminder of how

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The Implications of “Red Monday”

Regular readers will have been very well positioned to take advantage of what is happening in emerging markets and specifically currencies as we can see from the fairly dramatic chart below. We’ve been positioning for a USD bull run for some time now. Back in October we made the call

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What is China’s Banking System Telling Us?

The more we look at the Chinese renminbi the more convinced we become that the next serious move will be to the downside and that this will more than likely occur sooner rather than later. Last month I wrote an article “The World’s Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger”. This is

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Watch Out for Your Eyeballs!

I’m going to paraphrase a conversation I had recently with a Venture Capitalist whose focus is on the tech industry: Me: “Eyeballs, that’s what founders are telling me. How will this company monetize them?” VC: “Don’t know, they haven’t figured that out yet.” Me: “Right. Then how do you come

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This Trickle Will Soon Become a Flood

I cracked a rib a week ago. Don’t ask. Every time I breathe deeply, turn my body or laugh I am reminded that a tiny portion of my body, namely my damned rib, is involved in the process. It got me to thinking how much our present crop of bureaucrats

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Starting Up in Myanmar

In a world simply drowning in debt, the most egregious debt ever recorded in the worlds history in fact, we find ourselves with a unique situation where previously backward broken shell shocked countries such as Myanmar have one element of risk which we can eliminate from our risk profile when

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The World’s Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger

Ten days ago China cut interest rates in an effort to free up credit and stimulate the economy. This is unlikely to have much of a positive effect on economic growth in China. Rather it is likely to compound the big problem that the Chinese currently face: exports becoming increasingly uncompetitive.

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